There's no need to panic but a huge lump of metal and stuff could land on your head at any moment within the next 24ish hours without any warning.
The reason for this is the fact that, back in 1991, NASA put a satellite into orbit. This is all well and good but they failed to take into account that "what goes up must come down". This oversight has left us with the situation that the satellite is, in fact, coming down.
The satellite has the rather unfortunate name of "U-ARS".
U-ARS was launched into space [where Captain Kirk works] by the Space Shuttle Discovery. It is a lengthy 35 feet long, a massive 15 feet in diameter, weighs a colossal 13,000 pounds, and carries loads of instruments [10] - some of which may or not be sharp or pointy.
U-ARS has been floating about up there at an altitude of 375 miles with an orbital inclination of 57 degrees for 7316 days without bothering anybody. Until today.
As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time [That's not the sort of time we use so who knows what time that is in imperial measurements].
NASA have moved to allay people's fears by saying: "The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period". Hold on a minute, Southam isn't in North America. So that's okay for them isn't it: they launch it and someone else gets it.
NASA say it is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours.
The chances of it landing on or near Southam are infinitesimal. However, this is no reason not to panic and the advice is to keep a furtive eye on the sky above and be ready to duck. Wearing a hard hat is a good idea as is carrying an umbrella although carrying an umbrella is always a good idea.
NASA also said "The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.
The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry".
There's always a first time.
NASA continued: "It is too early to say exactly when U-ARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected". - This sounds like a weather forecast.
NASA will post updates at about 12 hours, six hours and two hours before re-entry. The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk".
Check out where it might be at this moment here [Top of page].
The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the time will become more reliable.
As of Sept. 8, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 152 miles by 171 miles (245 km by 275 km) with an inclination of 57 degrees. Because the satellite's orbit is inclined 57 degrees to the equator, any surviving components of UARS will land within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude which may or may not be the exact location of Southam. It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris will land, but NASA estimates the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long.
To make matters worse NASA say "If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance".
This conceptual image above shows the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, launched on Sept. 15, 1991, by the space shuttle Discovery. Originally designed for a three-year mission, UARS measured chemical compounds found in the ozone layer, wind and temperature in the stratosphere, as well as the energy input from the sun. Together, these measurements helped define the role of Earth's upper atmosphere in climate and climate variability. The 35-foot-long, 15-foot-diameter UARS was decommissioned on Dec. 14, 2005.
Thankfully, for councils and the like, NASA have issued a risk assessment guide: Click here for a risk assessment [PDF].
Background info on UARS:
After a 14-year deployment on a mission to collect data on Earth's atmosphere and its interactions with the Sun, NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) ceased operations on December 14, 2005. Launched from the Space Shuttle Discovery on September 15, 1991, the seven-ton spacecraft orbited the Earth more than 78,000 times, using 10 onboard scientific instruments to collect data on a variety of chemicals, including carbon dioxide, ozone, chlorine, methane, nitrogen oxides and chlorofluorocarbons.
UARS measured ozone and chemical compounds found in the ozone layer which affect ozone chemistry and processes. UARS also measured winds and temperatures in the stratosphere as well as the energy input from the Sun. Together, these help define the role of the upper atmosphere in climate and climate variability.
Most of the UARS atmospheric composition measurements are being continued with EOS Aura and all of the UARS solar irradiance measurements are being continued with SORCE
As a result of the work done by URAS scientists have gained a better understanding of the energy input, chemistry and dynamics of the upper atmosphere and the coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere. As the first satellite dedicated to studying stratospheric science, UARS focused on the processes that lead to ozone depletion, complementing and amplifying the measurements of total ozone made by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) onboard NASA's Nimbus-7 and the Russian Meteor-3 satellites. UARS also measured winds and temperatures in the stratosphere, as well as the energy input from the Sun, research that is now being applied to improve weather forecasting models and help scientists understand the forces behind global climate change.
Before UARS, little was known about the atmospheric region between 80 kilometers and 300 kilometers above the Earth, since radio-equipped balloons would explode at that altitude, and ordinary satellites burn up. UARS orbited at a safe 600-kilometer altitude, aiming its cameras at the atmosphere below. Although the mission was originally intended for only a three-year mission, its deployment was long enough to observe an entire 11-year solar cycle. Some of the mission's most important contributions came from the four instruments onboard that measured concentrations and distribution of gases important to ozone depletion, climate change and other atmospheric phenomena. Data collected from UARS offered conclusive evidence that chlorine in the atmosphere - originating from human-produced chlorofluorocarbons - is at the root of the ozone hole.
In all, the ten UARS instruments have provided the most complete data on upper atmospheric energy inputs, winds, and chemical composition ever gathered. Together, these observations constitute a highly integrated investigation of the nature of the upper atmosphere, and help define the role of the upper atmosphere in climate and climate variability. In its first two weeks of operation, UARS data confirmed the polar ozone-depletion theories by providing three-dimensional maps of ozone and chlorine monoxide near the South Pole during development of the 1991 ozone hole.
Moreover, UARS collected data on the chemistry, dynamics and radiative inputs to the upper atmosphere far beyond its designed lifetime. UARS was designed to last 18 months, but upgrades extended its life for years beyond its expected lifespan. The United Kingdom and Canada both provided instruments for this mission, the first spacecraft launched as part of NASA's systematic, comprehensive study of the Earth system.
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